November 19, 2021
Beacon Employment Report | California
Presented by Beacon Economics
Copyright © Beacon Economics LLC
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ACCOUNT FOR OUTSIZED SHARE OF U.S. JOB GROWTH BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS ‘STUBBORNLY’ HIGH
Hard Hit Sectors Still Have A Way To Go To Recover Pandemic-Driven Losses
California’s labor market expanded at a solid pace in October, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by 96,800 positions, according to an analysis released jointly with Beacon Economics. This growth accounted for 18.2% of the nation’s overall job gains in October. Note that September’s gains were revised up to 55,300 in the latest numbers, a 7,900 increase from the preliminary estimate of 47,400.
Fewer People Employed
While California added jobs at a healthy rate throughout 2021, as of October, there were still 886,300 fewer people employed in the state than at the pandemic’s onset in February 2020. Overall, total nonfarm employment has contracted 5.0% in the state compared to a 2.8% drop nationally. As a result, with a larger portion of its workforce still to be recovered, California should continue to see more rapid growth relative to the nation in the coming months.
California’s unemployment rate fell to 7.3% in October, a 0.2 percentage-point decline from the previous month, which was driven by an increase in household employment (+32,700) and a decrease in the labor force (-8,400). California’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the nation’s 4.6% rate. The supply of labor in the state is still far below pre-pandemic levels. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 410,600 workers, a 2.1% decline.
“We’re close to two years since the world was broadsided by the pandemic and California’s unemployment rate remains stubbornly high,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the Center for Forecasting. “Unfortunately, there are no quick fixes here and we expect unemployment to stay elevated well into 2022.”
The Beacon Employment Report | California is a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from the Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
The contents of this report are based on information derived from carefully selected sources Beacon Economics believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing presented here shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee.