October 19, 2018
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers. Click here to learn more about why seasonal adjustment is critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH CONTINUES… AT MODEST PACE
Nonfarm job growth in California was modest in September, with the state adding 13,200 positions in the latest numbers from the Economic Development Department (EDD), according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. From September 2017 to September 2018, California’s job growth rate (2.0%) outshined the nation’s (1.7%), while its yearly increase of 339,600 jobs was third largest among the 50 states.
California’s unemployment rate declined to 4.1% in the latest numbers, a new historic low, despite a 34,300 increase in the state’s labor force over the month. However, labor force growth remains modest from a year-over-year perspective, growing by just 4,900 from September 2017 to September 2018.
“September’s monthly gain was below this year’s average of 22,000, but monthly employment changes are quite volatile,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the Center for Forecasting. “More significantly, the state has maintained a yearly job growth rate of about 2% for several months running, despite a record low unemployment rate that edged down further this month and a labor force that is barely growing.” Kleinhenz noted that labor force constraints will begin to slow job growth across California in 2019.