June 15, 2018
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers. Click here to learn more about why seasonal adjustment is critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
MODEST JOB GAINS FOR CALIFORNIA AS RECORD-LOW UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES
In the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department, the state added a modest 5,500 jobs, however the picture brightens when examined from an annual basis where data show that and all but one industry sector added positions over the past year, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. At the same time, California’s unemployment rate remains at a historic low.
While the monthly statewide gain was weak, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) data paints a somewhat brighter picture, with the sum of the state’s MSAs totaling a monthly gain of 17,600 jobs. This suggests that the statewide number may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
California also saw its yearly job growth dip below the two percent threshold in May. With a total of 306,000 jobs added, year-over-year growth in the state fell to 1.8%, just ahead of the 1.6% pace of growth in the nation overall.
“Fluctuations in monthly job counts are to be expected as the state finds itself at full employment,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “But in looking at yearly job changes across industries and regions of the state, a picture of steady job growth becomes clearer.”
California’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in May. However, the state’s labor force declined for the second straight month. From a year-over-year perspective, the state’s labor force has grown by just 0.4%, while household employment has grown by 1.1%.