July 19, 2019
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH SOLID BUT LABOR FORCE CONTINUES ITS SLIDE
Unemployment Rate Remains Near Historic Low
Nonfarm employment in California expanded at a solid pace, increasing by 46,200 jobs in the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department, according an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. This marks the second largest month-to-month increase for the overall state in the last twelve months.
From a year-over-year perspective, California added 296,100 jobs as of June 2019. This is equivalent to a 1.7% year-over-year increase, outpacing the 1.5% growth rate in the nation as a whole.
California’s labor force declined by 57,700 in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. Overall, the state’s labor force has expanded by a sluggish 0.3% year-over-year, however, it has declined by 86,100 since the start of 2019. At 4.2%, the state’s unemployment rate has remained unchanged over the last year, hovering just above its historic low of 4.1%.
“California led all states in job gains last month, and it has maintained a steady course through the first half of the year despite uncertainties at the national and international level. This bodes well for the rest of the year,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Economist and Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside Center for Forecasting. “While we are concerned about the lack of growth in the labor force, it is important to note that the faster growing regions of the state continue to attract workers.”