August 17, 2018
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers. Click here to learn more about why seasonal adjustment is critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH RAMPS UP AGAIN
Substantial gains in July and a revision of June’s low numbers have pushed California’s rate of job growth above the nation’s, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. The state added 46,700 jobs in July, the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department. In addition, June’s numbers were revised upward, increasing from a paltry 800 jobs in the preliminary release to 21,500 jobs in the latest estimates. These gains have helped push the state’s job growth rate to 2.0%, just ahead of the nation overall (1.6%).
California’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in July. However, labor force growth continues to disappoint. From July 2017 to July 2018, the state’s labor force expanded by just 16,900 (0.1%). This tepid pace of growth is making it difficult for employers to attract the talent they need to grow their businesses and will make it difficult for California to sustain the growth levels it has enjoyed in recent years.
“The July numbers and June revision show that the statewide economy and its industries remain on a steady course,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the Center for Forecasting. “In yearly terms, overall job gains from January through July of this year were marginally less than during the same seven-month period a year earlier, with nearly every industry in the state contributing to those gains. The ongoing concern is that statewide growth is hemmed in by paltry increases in the labor force.”